Why use DCA? Managing a contaminated site is an inherently complex process, capable of unsettling even the most experienced decision-makers. In a single process, it's common to have multiple stakeholders with differing perspectives, as well as multifaceted – and sometimes antagonistic – objectives. Finding the balance between the environmental, economic, technical, legal, and political aspects of proposed solutions in a given project is perhaps the most challenging task within its management, especially at the precise moment of decision-making. To address this challenge, William Hall (Chairman of the Board of NewFields US) created, in 2010, a specific decision-making framework, then named Decision Consequence Analysis (DCA). This approach was specifically designed to enhance the understanding and management of uncertainties inherent in solving complex problems – such as contaminated site management – and involves the use of decision theory, probability, and statistics. Since 2010, this framework has been applied and validated in over 1000 sites of varying magnitudes and complexities. The general strategy of the DCA tool involves breaking down a complex problem into progressively smaller ones, allowing for a more accurate assessment of a particular issue within the overall context. This is achieved by analyzing – within each particular issue – possible courses of action, types of outcomes, the probability of these outcomes, as well as the costs and benefits derived from each of these potential solutions. Evaluating the consequences of a decision, in addition to the other advantages already mentioned, increases the likelihood of achieving desired outcomes.
DCA Implementation in Contaminated Site ManagementDCA implementation in contaminated site management can occur in short, medium, and long-term projects. When applied to short-term projects, it is particularly useful for early identification of project constraints (legal, physical, and fiscal), elimination of financially impractical alternatives, identification of high-risk costs, and communication among stakeholders – including regulatory and enforcement agencies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and other responsible parties. For medium or long-term projects, DCA also allows for the identification of strategies and decisions that can mitigate most undesirable consequences, in addition to efficiently prioritizing resources and optimizing project planning and strategies.
Case Study
In a NewFields case study, the original estimate to remediate and close out contamination management at a former chemical plant in New Jersey (NJ, USA) was $7.7 million. Initially, the team used DCA as a tool to calibrate decision-making, which resulted in identifying an 80% chance of reducing the total cost to less than $6 million. As the project progressed, the application of DCA allowed for the identification of cost drivers and uncertainty hotspots – and concurrently, more data was collected to reduce these factors. Thus, the continuous application of the tool throughout the project identified an optimal management and decision-making path that resulted in a final cost of $2.8 million – a saving of over $5 million compared to the initial estimate. NewFields Brazil also utilizes this tool to better manage its contaminated site projects: in a case study in the state of Pernambuco, the tool was primarily used to evaluate all available intervention alternatives on the market and select the one with the best intended outcome for the contaminated site in question. The tool's application allowed for a synergy analysis between the evaluated contaminated site and other nearby contaminated areas, with a view to optimizing costs and minimizing operational and environmental risks. The result of the DCA application indicated the selection of an intervention alternative that allowed for a 50% cost reduction, in addition to minimizing impacts on the physical environment and protecting human and ecological receptors in the region.
Conclusion
Decision Consequence Analysis proves to be a valuable tool for supporting decision-makers and other stakeholders in managing complex projects, aiming to achieve multiple objectives, reduce costs and uncertainties, and focus on more effective and cost-beneficial decisions. To learn more about NewFields' experience in this and other projects, follow us on LinkedIn or sign up for our updates.
